公共卫生中的预测:从PHIRI预测实践中获得的应用教程和对挑战的见解
Elizabeth N Mutubuki1, Daniela Moye-Holz1, Mariana Peyroteo2,3
1Centre for Public Health, Health Services and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
European journal of public health
|July 1, 2024
概括
这项研究表明,在公共卫生规划中采用了六步前性方法,突出了客观制定和情景构建方面的挑战. 建议提供进一步的指导和专家支持,以建立公共卫生预测能力.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 预测方法 预测方法 预测方法
- 战略规划 战略规划 战略规划
背景情况:
- 预见在公共卫生中的有限应用需要对未来趋势进行主动规划.
- 预测为专家和政策制定者提供工具,以预测和制定不确定的未来的战略.
- 人口健康信息研究基础设施 (PHIRI) 的预测实践提供了实用的见解.
研究的目的:
- 为了说明在公共卫生中应用六步前方法的应用.
- 提供建议,以克服前性演习中的挑战.
- 加强对公共卫生政策和规划的预测的使用.
主要方法:
- 描述六步预测方法,包括目标制定,DESTEP框架应用和场景开发.
- 利用人口经济社会文化技术生态和政治制度 (DESTEP) 框架来确定驱动力.
- 借鉴PHIRI预测演习的经验,以确定实际挑战.
主要成果:
- 遇到的挑战包括制定明确的目标和概念模型.
- 发现了理解驱动力,不确定性和场景构建方面的困难.
- 在六步方法中理解概念的相互关系是具有挑战性的.
结论:
- 对预测概念的更好理解需要专家的支持和实际应用.
- 进行更多的预测练习和利用教程可以在公共卫生领域建立能力.
- 准则和专家指导对于在公共卫生中有效实施预测至关重要.
相关概念视频
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
122
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
122
Primary Healthcare Services
1.4K
Primary care promotes wellness and prevents disease. This care includes health promotion, education, protection (such as immunizations), early disease screening, and environmental considerations. Settings providing this type of healthcare include physician offices, public health clinics, school nursing, and community health nursing.
In 1978, international leaders convened in Alma-Ata, Kazakhstan, for what would be a pivotal event in global health. The Alma-Ata Declaration was the first to call...
In 1978, international leaders convened in Alma-Ata, Kazakhstan, for what would be a pivotal event in global health. The Alma-Ata Declaration was the first to call...
1.4K
Principles of Disease Surveillance
88
Disease surveillance is the systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of health data essential to the planning, implementation, and evaluation of public health practice. This process integrates data dissemination to entities responsible for preventing and controlling disease, injury, and disability. Surveillance systems provide crucial information for action, helping public health authorities make informed decisions to manage and prevent outbreaks, ensure public safety, optimize...
88
Hindsight Biases
3.4K
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
3.4K
Methods Of Healthcare Delivery System
3.2K
At the different levels of the healthcare system, we see varying methods of healthcare used. These methods include managed care systems, case management, and primary healthcare.
Managed Care System:
The managed care system is designed to control the cost while maintaining the quality of care. The patient's care from admission to discharge is planned by the primary care provider or the case manager, also known as the gatekeeper. In a managed care system, the number of care providers is...
Managed Care System:
The managed care system is designed to control the cost while maintaining the quality of care. The patient's care from admission to discharge is planned by the primary care provider or the case manager, also known as the gatekeeper. In a managed care system, the number of care providers is...
3.2K
International Nursing Organizations II
1.0K
The World Health Organization (WHO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations based in Geneva. The WHO has many initiatives that center around health. Primarily, they lead global efforts to expand universal health coverage using science-based policies and programs. They are also responsible for shaping health research agendas and developing norms and standards.
The WHO provides expert team support, including funding, vaccines, testing, and treatment tools at the country level to fight...
The WHO provides expert team support, including funding, vaccines, testing, and treatment tools at the country level to fight...
1.0K


