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资产级评估气候物理风险问题,以融资适应
Giacomo Bressan1, Anja Đuranović2, Irene Monasterolo3,4,5
1Institute for Ecological Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria.
Nature communications
|July 1, 2024
概括
准确的气候物理风险评估对于适应至关重要. 我们的方法量化了资产的风险,揭示了当资产级别和急性风险被忽视时,财务损失的严重低估,阻碍了有效的气候弹性战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 气候物理风险评估对于适应政策和融资至关重要.
- 有限的科学基础,透明的解决方案加剧了适应差距.
- 准确的风险评估对于有效的气候变化减缓和弹性建设至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提供一种方法来量化地理位置生产资产的物理风险.
- 将资产层面的气候冲击转化为经济和金融损失.
- 突出忽视资产级别和急性风险对适应金融和政策的影响.
主要方法:
- 考虑到慢性和急性影响 (例如风) 的资产的物理风险的量化,跨越政府间气候变化专家组的情景.
- 资产层面的冲击转化为经济和金融损失.
- 该方法应用于墨西哥,这是一个具有高物理风险暴露的国家.
主要成果:
- 当资产级信息被忽视时,投资者损失可能被低估高达70%.
- 当忽视尾部急性风险时,损失可能被低估高达82%.
- 该方法揭示了由于不完整的风险评估而导致的财务损失的严重低估.
结论:
- 忽视物质风险的资产级别和急性维度,导致适应政策和财务方面的重大错误.
- 准确,细致的风险评估是必要的,以确定适当的适应反应和投资.
- 改进的风险评估方法对于建立有效的气候变化弹性至关重要.
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