接受新辅助治疗的晚期结直肠癌的生存预测 - - SEER数据库的研究
Zhuo Han1, Haicheng Yang1, Qing Qiao1
1Department of General Surgery, Tangdu Hospital, The Air Force Medical University, Xi'an, 710038, China.
World journal of surgical oncology
|July 2, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种名录模型,用于预测接受新辅助治疗的晚期结直肠癌 (CRC) 患者的生存率. 该模型准确地预测了结果,并显示了临床实用性,特别是在年轻患者身上.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 癌症预后 癌症预后
- 临床数据建模临床数据建模
背景情况:
- 淋巴结转移的结肠直肠癌 (CRC) 需要有效的预后工具,特别是在新辅助疗法后.
- 预测晚期CRC患者的整体存活率 (OS) 对于治疗规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在接受新辅助治疗的晚期结直肠癌 (CRC) 患者中确定与整体生存 (OS) 相关的因素.
- 构建和验证一个名ogram模型来预测OS在这个患者队列.
主要方法:
- 利用SEER数据库进行培训 (3:2比) 和测试队列,并获得唐都医院的外部验证.
- 采用单变Cox回归,LASSO回归和随机森林生存分析来选预后变量.
- 使用曲线下的面积 (AUC),校准曲线和决策曲线分析评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 开发了一个纳米图模型,结合了M阶段,年龄,化疗,CEA,围神经入侵,瘤大小,LODDS,肝转移和辐射等因素.
- 该模型在培训,测试和验证组 (AUC从0.733到0.838) 中对1,3年和5年的操作系统表现出良好的预测准确度.
- 校准和决策曲线分析证实了名图的准确性和临床适用性,对早发性CRC (EOCRC) 的预测比晚发性CRC (LOCRC) 更好.
结论:
- 包括LODDS在内的经过验证的诺姆图模型有效地预测了接受新辅助治疗的晚期CRC患者的预后.
- 该模型对预测整体存活率具有显著的准确性和临床实用性.
- 与晚期发作的结直肠癌相比,名图显示了早期发作的结直肠癌的优异预测价值.
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