通过人类干预,在中国加强陆地碳汇的巨大潜力
1Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China.
Science bulletin
|July 2, 2024
概括
中国的陆地生态系统可以通过重新造林和污染控制等干预措施显著提高其碳吸收能力. 这些行动对于到2060年实现国家碳中和目标至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 中国的陆地生态系统目前每年抵消21%至45%的国家化石燃料二氧化碳排放.
- 维持和加强这种陆地碳汇对于中国的碳中和目标至关重要.
- 碳汇的不确定性源于气候变化,空气污染和人类活动.
研究的目的:
- 探索加强中国陆地碳汇的方法.
- 量化人类干预对碳汇的影响.
- 评估这些干预措施对中国碳中和目标的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用了经过验证的动态植被模型.
- 采用了来自16种不同的气候模型的气象强迫.
- 模拟场景包括共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 和人为干预 (森林化,臭氧减少,垃圾清除).
主要成果:
- 如果不进行干预,预计到2060年,土地下沉将达到0.26-0.56 Pg C a-1 ,受到气候变化和二氧化碳施肥的影响.
- 通过SSP1-2.6下的干预措施 (造林,臭氧控制,垃圾清除),到2060年,土地沉降量将增加到0.47-0.57 Pg C a-1.
- 干预措施有显著的贡献:植树 (0.12 Pg C a-1),臭氧控制 (0.07 Pg C a-1) 和垃圾清除 (0.06-0.16 Pg C a-1).
结论:
- 人类干预可以大大提高中国的陆地碳汇.
- 加强的水槽可以在2060年之前减轻90%-110%的剩余人为碳排放.
- 这些发现为实现中国碳中和目标提供了坚实的基础.
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