预测和绘制中国登革热流行病的地图:时空空间分析
Hongyan Ren1, Nankang Xu2,3
1State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China. renhy@lreis.ac.cn.
Infectious diseases of poverty
|July 3, 2024
概括
由于进口病例的增加,中国面临着日益严重的登革热流行病. 了解时空模式和风险因素对于公共卫生干预这种蚊子传播疾病至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 登革热 (DF) 在中国是一个日益严重的公共卫生挑战.
- 需要阐明空间时空模式和DF传播的驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响中国DF变化的因素.
- 评估城市一级的DF流行风险.
主要方法:
- 分析了DF病例数据 (2003-2022) 和11个自然/社会经济因素.
- 采用随机森林 (RF) 模型来评估因素贡献和预测城市级风险.
主要成果:
- 进口的DF病例与当地流行病有显著的相关性,增加了它们的严重程度和持续时间.
- 空间分布与主要的地理线 (胡线,Q-H线) 一致.
- 射频模型准确预测风险 (AUC=0.92),确定进口病例 (24.82%) 是东部地区的主要驱动因素.
结论:
- 由于进口病例的增加,中国正在经历更多本地DF流行病.
- 洞察力有助于卫生当局加强DF干预策略.
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