初级皮肤黑色素瘤的发病率和死亡率趋势:罗切斯特流行病学项目的50年研究
Jacob P Reinhart1, Elliott H Campbell1, Sydney L Proffer1
1Department of Dermatology, Mayo Clinic School of Graduate Medical Education, Rochester, Minnesota.
JAAD international
|July 3, 2024
概括
黑色素瘤的发病率正在上升,特别是在女性中,但死亡率在50年内显著下降. 这表明超额诊断之外的因素可能会影响趋势.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 皮肤病学 皮肤病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 国家癌症登记处的数据对于黑色素瘤发病率趋势缺乏细节性.
- 专家意见在黑色素瘤过度诊断与不增加死亡率的发病率上升方面存在分歧.
研究的目的:
- 分析黑色素瘤发病率和死亡率的10年和50年趋势.
- 调查影响黑色素瘤趋势和结果的因素.
主要方法:
- 使用罗切斯特流行病学项目的基于人口的流行病学研究.
- 分析了从1970年到2020年诊断出的2310种初级皮肤黑色素瘤.
- 根据年龄和性别调整的发病率和特定疾病的死亡率的计算.
主要成果:
- 自20世纪70年代以来,黑色素瘤发病率增加了11.1倍 (P < .001).
- 在过去十年中,发病率上升了1.21倍,女性增加了1.36倍 (P < .002).
- 黑色素瘤特异性死亡率从20世纪70年代的26.7%下降到2010年代的1.5%.
结论:
- 黑色素瘤的发病率继续上升,特别是在40岁以上的女性中,这表明超出过度诊断之外的潜在外部因素.
- 在过去的50年里,黑色素瘤特异性死亡率显著下降.
- 眉毛的厚度,年龄,解剖部位和结节亚型与黑色素瘤死亡率的增加有关.
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