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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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在一个数据稀缺的发展中城市中,解开城市对气候变化的水环境响应和基于MCDA的区域优先级
Kexin Liu1, Tsuyoshi Kinouchi1, Reasmey Tan2
1School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 4259 Nagatsuta Cho, Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture 226-8503, Japan.
The Science of the total environment
|July 3, 2024
概括
气候变化加剧了发展中国家城市的城市洪水和便污染. 这项研究模拟了金边的这些风险,确定了针对有针对性的雨水管理干预措施的脆弱区域.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 气候变化增加了大雨量,挑战了基础设施有限的发展中国家的城市雨水管理.
- 城市雨水量和质量的定量评估受到数据稀缺和对排水系统的理解不足的阻碍.
- 综合下水道溢出 (CSO) 是大雨期间便和有机污染的重要来源.
研究的目的:
- 评估目前和未来的城市洪水和便/有机污染在柬埔寨金边.
- 预测气候变化对洪水量,污染物度和负载的影响.
- 使用多标准决策分析 (MCDA) 框架评估洪水风险.
主要方法:
- 使用了经过验证的水文模型,包括物理和生化过程.
- 在金边的排水网络中模拟排放,洪水量和污染物度 (SS,大肠杆菌,COD).
- 根据RCP 4.5和8.5情景,使用MCDA评估物理,社会和生态维度的洪水风险.
主要成果:
- 气候变化加剧了洪水量,扩大了被洪水淹没的地区,并延长了洪水.
- 在预测的气候场景下,污染物度和溢出中的负载显著增加.
- 确定了对洪水和气候变化影响更为脆弱的特定区域.
结论:
- 气候变化显著增加了城市洪水和便污染的风险,特别是在基础设施有限的城市.
- 优先投资在被确定为脆弱区域的洪水减缓措施至关重要.
- 这些发现为城市规划和雨水管理提供了必要的指导,这些指导在数据稀缺的发展中地区是必要的.
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