使用具有坚定的异质性的CGE模型评估碳税:对越南的应用
K Ali Akkemik1, Jorge Tavares Borges2, Phuong Thao Dang3
1Fukuoka University, 8-19-1 Nanakuma, Jonan-ku, Fukuoka, 814-0180, Japan.
Journal of environmental management
|July 4, 2024
概括
越南 越南 越南 越南
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候政策 气候政策
- 一般平衡模型建模
背景情况:
- 越南正在探索脱碳的碳市场.
- 碳税是温室气体排放的潜在监管工具.
研究的目的:
- 评估越南碳税政策对宏观经济和气候的影响.
- 分析碳税的有效性,考虑到公司的异质性.
主要方法:
- 利用一个独特的数据集进行模拟分析.
- 采用多部门动态可计算的一般平衡 (CGE) 模型.
- 在CGE模型中,纳入了企业的异质性 (国内企业与外国投资企业).
主要成果:
- 可信的碳税税率可以将2030年的排放量降低1.3-2.8%低于目标.
- 这种减少在2030年潜在的GDP损失为1.2-2.7%的情况下出现.
- 外国投资企业可能会在中期增加排放;税收对国内企业更有效.
- 能源部门的显著减排和提高能源效率至关重要.
结论:
- 越南的碳税可以实现减排目标,但需要付出经济代价.
- 政策设计应考虑公司的异质性,以获得最佳的有效性.
- 能源部门改革和提高效率对于成功减排至关重要.
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