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在气候变化期间,预测冰川湖爆发碎片流在喜马拉雅山脉的新框架
Bin Zhou1, Qiang Zou2, Hu Jiang1
1State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610299, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
The Science of the total environment
|July 4, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,喜马拉雅山脉的冰川湖爆发碎片流 (GLODF) 正在增加. 这项研究预测,到2100年,GLODF发生率将大幅增加,突出了脆弱地区和需要灾害管理策略的需求.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 天然危害 天然危害
背景情况:
- 全球变暖导致喜马拉雅冰川撤退和冰川湖扩张,增加冰川湖爆发碎片流 (GLODF) 的风险.
- 现有的知识差距阻碍了在喜马拉雅山区GLODF的有效灾害管理和跨境合作.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个新的框架来预测整个21世纪的喜马拉雅GLODF发生情况.
- 评估气候变化对GLODF频率的影响,并确定高风险地区.
主要方法:
- 整合环境演变数据,流程驱动的指标系统和混合机器学习模型.
- 在SSP245和SSP585情景下预测温度和降水变化.
- 未来冰川质量损失和新的冰川湖泊形成的估计.
主要成果:
- 预计温度增加0.27-0.60°C/10a,降水增加1.30-5.00%/10a.
- 到2100年,喜马拉雅冰川可能会失去70-86%的质量;预计将有2722 ± 207个新的冰川湖.
- 预计GLODF发生的概率将增加1.27-1.30倍至当前水平,热点位于西喜马拉雅山脉,印度河盆地和中尼边境.
结论:
- 开发的框架为气候变化下的喜马拉雅GLODF趋势提供了长期见解.
- 调查结果强调了GLODF的不断升级的威胁,并为灾害管理和跨境合作努力提供了信息.
- 该研究强调,在中国尼泊尔边境等高发病率地区迫切需要适应战略.
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