对玉米的复合干旱/浸水和低温事件的动态演变特征和危险评估
Dan Chen1, Ying Guo1, Yunmeng Zhao1
1School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China.
The Science of the total environment
|July 4, 2024
概括
这项研究评估了影响玉米的复合干旱/浸水和低温事件 (CDLE和CWLE). CWLEs发生的频率更高,但CDLEs导致产量减少更大,突出了各种玉米灾难风险.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 灾害风险管理 灾害风险管理
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 由于全球变暖,复合水和温度事件正在增加.
- 目前的研究不足以解决低温和复合事件带来的风险.
- 准确的危险评估对于各种玉米灾难缓解策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析玉米复合干旱/浸水和低温事件 (CDLE和CWLE) 的动态特征和危险.
- 为了比较CDLEs和CWLEs对1981-2020年松平原玉米的影响.
- 为这些复合事件开发和应用新的危险评估模型.
主要方法:
- 使用不超值概率构建复合干旱/浸水和低温大小指数 (CDLMI和CWLMI).
- 基于概率密度和累积概率密度曲线的静态和动态危险评估模型的开发.
- 对不同增长时期和几十年的事件特征 (发生,持续时间,严重程度) 和危险评级进行比较分析.
主要成果:
- 几十年来,干旱/淹水和低温指数之间的负相关性被观察到.
- 对CDLEs和CWLEs的更高危险评级是在北方的利亚奥平原发现的.
- 危险中心发生了转移:在2001-2010年和2011-2020年期间,CDLE向南,CWLE向北.
- 一般来说,CWLE的持续时间,频率和危险性更高,而CDLE则导致玉米产量减少更严重.
结论:
- 该研究为玉米复合灾害风险评估提供了新的见解.
- 开发的方法可以应用于其他农业地区的可持续发展.
- 这些发现有助于改善玉米灾害预防和减轻战略,并确保粮食安全.
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