基于使用机器学习方法的监测数据,对医院感染的风险评估和预测
Ying Chen1, Yonghong Zhang2, Shuping Nie1
1Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Eighth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, 518003, PR China.
BMC public health
|July 4, 2024
概括
机器学习模型可以使用常规监测数据预测医院感染趋势. 像手术量和抗生素使用等关键指标可以为感染发生率提供早期警告.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健信息学 医疗保健信息学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 鼻腔感染对全球的健康造成了重大负担.
- 目前的医院感染监测 (NIS) 系统缺乏预测能力.
- 本研究旨在通过结合预测分析来增强NIS.
研究的目的:
- 从常规NIS数据中确定医院感染 (INI) 发生率的有效预测因素.
- 开发和验证用于INI趋势预测和早期预警的机器学习 (ML) 模型.
- 根据已识别的预测因素,为INI建立风险值.
主要方法:
- 在两个中国医院收集了2014-2021年的NIS数据.
- 分析了39个因素,包括医院操作,抗生素使用和环境数据.
- 应用并比较了五种ML方法,包括随机森林和支持矢量机,用于INI预测.
主要成果:
- 随机森林获得了最高的预测性能 (5倍AUC=0.983).
- 确定了12个指标作为区分高风险和低风险INI组的显著预测指标 (P <0.05).
- 一个INI的时间趋势预测模型成功构建了强大的R2值.
结论:
- 关键指标,如手术量,抗生素使用密度,关键疾病率和处方实践等,可以预测INI.
- 这些发现使得医院感染的定量早期预警系统成为可能.
- 将ML集成到NIS中可以将监控转化为积极的医疗保健战略.
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