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探索百度指数与类似流感的疾病之间的滞后相关性 - 中国,2014-2019年
Xuan Han1, Jiao Yang1, Yan Luo1
1School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS) & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
China CDC weekly
|July 5, 2024
概括
百度指数,特别是预防和症状指数,可以作为中国流感流行病的早期预警系统. 这些搜索趋势显示,与类似流感的疾病百分比的相关性滞后,有助于及时的公共卫生反应.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
- 数字流行病学数字流行病学
背景情况:
- 类似流感的疾病 (ILI) 构成了重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 传统的监控方法可能会导致报告延迟.
- 数字数据源,如搜索引擎查询,提供实时监控的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 调查百度指数搜索数据与中国ILI百分比之间的滞后相关性.
- 评估百度指数作为流感流行病早期预警工具的潜力.
主要方法:
- 收集了来自中国30个省级行政区 (PLAD) 的LI%和百度指数数据 (2014年4月至2019年3月).
- 根据搜索主题将百度索引分类为总体,普通,预防,症状和治疗索引.
- 利用交叉相关函数 (CCF) 方法来分析滞后的相关性.
主要成果:
- 在百度总体指数和ILI%之间发现了强烈的相关性 (CCF 0.46-0.86),中位数滞后时间为0.5天.
- 与普通和治疗指数相比,预防和症状指数对ILI%的反应更快 (平均滞后时间为-9和0.5天).
- 地理分析表明,与南方地区相比,在中国北部早些时候发现了ILI趋势.
结论:
- 百度指数,特别是预防和症状指数,显示了早期检测流感流行病的巨大潜力.
- 这种数字监控方法可以补充及时公共卫生干预的传统方法.
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