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开发和验证一个预测模型,用于在上尿路结石手术后的双J支架化
Weihui Jia1, Wenyu Chi2, Chen Liu3
1Department of Gastroenterology, Weifang People's Hospital, Shandong, China.
Urolithiasis
|July 5, 2024
概括
在尿路结石手术后开发了一种双J支架层的预测模型. 关键的危险因素包括更高的BMI,手术前白细胞,更长的插入时间和手术后的低水摄入量.
科学领域:
- 泌尿器科 泌尿器科 泌尿器科 泌尿器科
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學.
- 医疗工程 医疗工程
背景情况:
- 双J支架结是上尿路结石手术后的一种并发症.
- 需要预测模型来识别患有这种并发症高风险的患者.
- 早期识别可以指导预防策略并改善患者的治疗结果.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个预测模型,用于在上泌尿道 calculi 手术后双J 支架的化.
- 为了确定与双J支架层相关的重大风险因素.
- 为风险评估和预防提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 来自561名患者 (建模组) 和241名患者 (验证组) 的临床数据的追溯收集.
- 单变量和二进制物流回归分析以确定风险因素.
- 接收器操作特征 (ROC) 曲线分析以评估预测模型的性能.
主要成果:
- 在建模组中,双J支架结层的发生率为18.5%.
- 确定了四个显著的危险因素:BMI>23.9,手术前尿液常规白血细胞计数,双J管插入时间和术后水消耗<2000毫升/天.
- ROC曲线分析显示了高的预测值,曲线下的面积 (AUC) 为0.844.
结论:
- 开发的预测模型在识别患有双J支架结层风险的患者方面表现出很高的准确性.
- 鉴定到的风险因素为有针对性的预防策略提供了基础.
- 这个模型可以帮助临床医生管理接受上尿路石头手术的患者.
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