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作为对气候变化的反应,湖泊冰的减少可能会影响当地社区的支出
Alessandro Filazzola1,2, Mohammad Arshad Imrit1, Andrew Fleck3
1Department of Biology, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
PloS one
|July 5, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着湖泊冰,这是一个重要的社会经济资源. 这项研究量化了其经济价值,并预测到2100年,冰盖和冰的持续时间将大幅减少,影响当地经济.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
背景情况:
- 湖泊冰是面临气候变化威胁的关键社会经济资源.
- 预计气温的升温将减少湖泊的冰盖和持续时间.
- 气候引起的湖冰损失对经济的影响在很大程度上是未被探索的.
研究的目的:
- 量化与湖冰活动相关的货币支出.
- 评估气候变化对湖冰经济价值的潜在影响.
- 预测北半球湖冰覆盖面和持续时间的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 使用的通用循环模型 (GCM) 和温室气体排放场景.
- 采用湖泊冰盖模型预测到21世纪末的变化.
- 综合了31个来自湖冰活动的收入例子.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,湖冰的面积将减少44,000-177,000平方公里,持续时间将缩短13-43天.
- 湖冰为当地社区和经济创造了超过204亿美元的支出.
- 预测冰损失最大的地区也具有较高的国内生产总值,温室气体排放和淡水依赖.
结论:
- 气候变化正在造成湖泊冰的大量损失,并产生深远的社会经济影响.
- 湖泊冰被认为是人类引起的气候变化的另一个受害者.
- 量化经济后果凸显了依赖湖泊冰的社区的脆弱性.
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