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基于机器学习的模型的开发和外部验证,以预测细胞炎患者在住院期间发生败血症
Xilingyuan Chen1, Li Hu2, Rentao Yu2
1Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.
BMJ open
|July 5, 2024
概括
机器学习模型可以预测住院细胞炎患者的败血症发展. 人工神经网络和增强模型在外部验证中表现出卓越的性能和稳定性,有助于早期检测.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学医学信息学
- 临床预测建模临床预测建模
- 机器学习在医疗保健中的应用
背景情况:
- 蜂炎是住院的常见原因,与败血症相关的高死亡率.
- 现有的分层模型用于预测细胞炎患者的败血症,在外部验证中表现不满意.
研究的目的:
- 开发和比较各种机器学习模型,用于预测患有细胞炎的住院患者的败血症发展.
- 在外部验证中评估这些模型的性能和稳定性.
主要方法:
- 追溯性队列研究,涉及两个独立的国际队列.
- 开发阶段:6695名患有纤维炎的患者 (MIMIC-IV数据库) 使用机器学习算法.
- 外部验证阶段:2506名患有细胞炎的患者 (YiduCloud数据库).
主要成果:
- 在内部验证中,XGBoost获得了最高的AUC (0.780).
- 在外部验证中,人工神经网络 (ANN) 模型显示了最高的AUC (0.830),超过了后勤回归 (LR).
- 提升和ANN模型在删除变量时,与LR相比,表现出更大的稳定性.
结论:
- 增强和神经网络模型为预测细胞炎患者的败血症提供了更好的性能和稳定性.
- 这些模型可以作为一种有价值的工具,用于在住院的蜂炎患者中早期检测败血症.
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