所有原因,心血管和呼吸道死亡率以及与野火相关的臭氧:多国两阶段时间序列分析
Gongbo Chen1, Yuming Guo1, Xu Yue2
1School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|July 5, 2024
概括
野火烟雾增加臭氧 (O3) 污染,导致全球全因和呼吸道死亡率上升. 这项研究强调,迫切需要有效的野火和烟雾管理战略,以保护公共健康.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 野火活动是对热层臭氧 (O3) 污染的重要贡献者.
- 以前的研究还没有系统地评估与野火相关的O3暴露对死亡率的全球影响.
研究的目的:
- 系统地检查与野火相关的臭氧 (O3) 短期暴露与日常死亡率之间的全球关联.
- 量化全球与野火相关的O3暴露导致的过度死亡率.
主要方法:
- 采用43个国家的749个地点 (2000-2016) 的每日死亡率数据进行了多国两阶段时间序列分析.
- 与野火相关的O3度使用化学运输模型估计,缩小到0.25° × 0.25°分辨率.
- 随机效应元分析评估了O3暴露 (滞后0-2天) 和死亡率之间的关联,计算了过度死亡率分数.
主要成果:
- 每日野火相关的O3增加1μg/m3与所有原因死亡率增加0.55%,呼吸道死亡率增加0.82%有关.
- 可归因于短期O3暴露的估计每年过度死亡率为0.58%的全因死亡率 (31,606人死亡) 和0.86%的呼吸道死亡率 (4,657人死亡).
- 在各个国家和地区的死亡率关联中观察到显著的地理异质性.
结论:
- 与野火相关的臭氧 (O3) 的短期暴露与全球所有原因和呼吸道死亡率的增加有关.
- 实施有效的风险和烟雾管理策略对于减轻野火对公众健康的影响至关重要.
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