建立针对中国三个示范地区的交通基础设施降雨的弹性预测模型
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Updated: Jun 21, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Wen Zeng1, Xiaodan Sun2,3, Hongping Xing1
1School of Civil Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, China.
Scientific reports
|July 5, 2024
概括
这项研究分析了40年的降雨数据,以预测中国主要地区交通基础设施的暴雨风险. 这些发现揭示了各种各样的灾难趋势,并突出了长江三角洲.
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 运输科学 运输科学
背景情况:
- 暴雨对全球交通基础设施和系统连接构成重大威胁.
- 评估对气象灾害的运输弹性对于基础设施安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 支持四川-重庆,长江三角洲和北京-天津-河北-山东地区交通基础设施的弹性评估.
- 分析时间降雨分布,并建立暴雨事件的预测方程.
主要方法:
- 从中国三个代表性地区收集了40年的降雨数据.
- 将概率密度函数 (PDF) 分配给降雨数据,并将其转换为标准的正常空间.
- 进行回归分析以确定预测方程并测试预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 研究区域的降雨频率遵循逻辑正常分布,使得预测方程的开发成为可能.
- 长江三角洲面临更高的暴雨灾害风险,基于降雨频率和降水度回归周期.
- 四川-重庆的降雨量增加,但灾害减少 (1980-2021年),而其他地区的降雨量增加.
结论:
- 开发的预测方程对于预测区域降雨是可信的.
- 了解区域降雨模式和灾害风险对于提高运输基础设施弹性至关重要.
- 未来的研究应该专注于改进预测模型和降雨风暴对交通的影响的缓解策略.
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