整个斯堪的纳维亚地区的北极的气候变化脆弱性
Clint C Muhlfeld1, Timothy J Cline2, Anders G Finstad3,4
1U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, Montana, USA.
Global change biology
|July 7, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着北极,一种冷水鱼,到2080年,81%的种群处于危险之中. 息地变化和像北方这样的捕食者放大了变暖的影响,可能导致范围的收缩而不是变化.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 淡水鱼类学 淡水鱼类学
背景情况:
- 气候变化推动了物种范围的变化,但对于范围有限的物种,息地可用性是有限的.
- 北极淡水生态系统正在经历明显的全球变暖,对适应寒冷的物种构成灭绝风险.
- 北极 (Salvelinus alpinus) 是世界上最适应寒冷的和分布在北方的淡水鱼,使其易受气候变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估北极 (Salvelinus alpinus) 在斯堪的纳维亚湖泊的气候脆弱性.
- 确定影响北极炭火发生的关键非生物和生物因素.
- 根据未来的排放场景,预测气候变暖对北极炭种群的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自1762个斯堪的纳维亚湖泊的广泛的鱼群和环境数据集,这些数据集在20世纪90年代中期采集了样本.
- 采用机器学习模型,根据环境和生物数据预测北极火灾的发生情况.
- 应用气候变暖预测 (RCP8.5情景) 来评估未来的人口风险.
主要成果:
- 机器学习模型根据非生物和生物因素准确地预测了北极的发生 (准确率为89%).
- 北极炭火的发生与温暖的夏季温度,高溶解有机碳 (棕色) 和北方 (Esox lucius) 的存在负相关.
- 气候变暖的影响受到湖泊面积的调节,并由竞争对手/捕食者放大,预计到2080年,81%的种群面临灭绝的高风险.
结论:
- 由于气候变化,北极炭火面临范围的收缩而不是变化,特别是在其南部范围的极限和较低的海拔地区.
- 在一些山区和沿海地区可能存在潜在的气候避难所.
- 积极的保护和缓解战略对于防止北极淡水生物多样性丧失至关重要.
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