随着时间的推移,重犯风险的变化:通过进度监测来改善惩戒计划
Kelly M Babchishin1, R Karl Hanson1, Seung C Lee2
1Department of Psychology, Carleton University.
Psychological assessment
|July 8, 2024
概括
监测性犯罪复发风险至关重要. 最近的ACUTE-2007和STABLE-2007工具的分数最好预测监督人员的重犯风险,强调动态风险评估的重要性.
科学领域:
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 校正服务机构的校正服务.
背景情况:
- 监督进展对于基于证据的监狱实践至关重要.
- 对犯下性犯罪的个人进行监督需要仔细评估风险,因为可能会产生负面结果.
研究的目的:
- 检查性犯罪社区监督下个人进度监测的不同模型.
- 确定进展监测应如何为性犯罪复发风险评估提供信息.
主要方法:
- 对2939名有性犯罪史的男性进行了前性纵向研究.
- 对 ACUTE-2007 和 STABLE-2007 风险评估工具的不同评分模型 (最近的,最差的,最好的,滚动平均值) 的比较.
- 评估STABLE-2007的增量预测有效性超出了静态-99R.
主要成果:
- 与其他评分模型相比,来自ACUTE-2007和STABLE-2007的最新得分是性犯罪复发的优越预测指标.
- 最新的STABLE-2007得分提供了超过基线风险的性复发的增量预测 (静态-99R).
结论:
- 性犯罪复发风险是动态的,随着时间的推移而变化.
- 对动态风险因素的反复评估提高了社区的纠正.
- 利用最近的风险评估得分可以提高预测性犯罪复发的准确性.
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