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对瑞典家禽引入高致病性禽流感的风险进行映射

Pascale Stiles¹, Malin Grant², Hyeyoung Kim³

¹Department of Epidemiology, Surveillance and Risk Assessment, National Veterinary Agency, SVA, 751 89 Uppsala, Sweden; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Im Neuenheimer Feld 130/3, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany.

Preventive veterinary medicine

|July 8, 2024

概括

瑞典家禽的高度致病性禽流感 (HPAI) 风险有很大的差异. 地图绘制确定了高风险地区,表明需要采取有针对性的预防措施,以减轻野生鸟类传播HPAI的风险.

科学领域:

兽医流行病学兽医流行病学
疾病风险绘制疾病风险绘制.
传染病生态学传染病生态学

背景情况:

高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) 疫情在全球和瑞典造成了巨大的经济损失.
在高风险地区,有效的预防措施,如强制性室内住房,至关重要.
了解HPAI从野生鸟类传入家禽的时空风险对于疾病控制至关重要.

研究的目的:

进行从野生鸟类引入瑞典家禽的高度致病性禽流感病毒 (HPAIV) 的时空风险测绘.
利用现有的数据源进行风险评估,并确定瑞典的高风险地区.

主要方法:

采用晶格计算方法来评估时空HPAIV引入风险.
使用野生鸟类密度,温度,农业和HPAI的存在来计算环境感染压力.
风险因素按专家意见加权,压力乘以家禽密度来确定整体风险.

主要成果:

在瑞典各地观察到HPAIV引入风险的重大国家和地方差异.
斯卡内和奥斯特戈特兰县的环境传染压力和HPAI风险特别高.
一些高风险地区没有记录疫情,可能是由于家禽生产类型的差异.

结论:

该研究强调了瑞典家禽在HPAIV引入风险方面存在相当大的国家和地方差异.
这些发现支持实施更有针对性的,特定区域的强制性预防措施.
由于HPAI情况的变化和野生鸟类动态,风险地图的持续更新是必要的.

关键词:

高致病性禽流感是一种高度致病性禽流感.禽类禽类禽类是一种风险映射风险映射风险映射时间空间建模.

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