定量与定性结果:对货币和医疗决策中的风险和模糊性的纵向研究
Chelsea Y Xu1,2, Ohad Dan1, Ruonan Jia1,2
1Department of Comparative Medicine, Yale School of Medicine.
Research square
|July 9, 2024
概括
决策者在货币和医疗选择中显示出风险和模两可的态度中适度的一致性. 风险态度似乎比模两可的态度随着时间的推移更稳定,这表明它们更类似于特征.
科学领域:
- 决策科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 医疗决策的制定 医疗决策的制定
背景情况:
- 现有关于不确定性下决策的研究主要研究可量化的结果,如货币彩票.
- 个人如何为不可量化的结果形成主观价值,例如在医疗环境中,仍然不太了解.
研究的目的:
- 调查决策者对风险的态度和在定量 (货币) 和定性 (医疗) 结果领域的模糊性.
- 评估这些态度在跨领域内和跨领域的时间一致性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个在线决策任务,向参与者提供了保证较低的结果和潜在的更高的结果之间的二元选择,涉及风险和模两可.
- 结果在货币收益和医疗状况改善之间有所不同.
- 429名参与者分两个阶段完成了这项任务,以便随着时间的推移进行域内和域间一致性分析.
主要成果:
- 对风险和模两可的态度在货币和医疗领域表现出温和的相关性.
- 风险态度显示,与跨领域相关性相比,随着时间的推移,测试-重新测试相关性略高.
- 模两可的态度显示,跨时间的相关性比跨领域的相关性略微弱.
结论:
- 研究结果表明,风险态度可能更稳定,更类似特征,而模两可的态度更像状态.
- 该研究引入了一种新的建模方法,适用于在无法量化结果的环境中进行决策.
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