使用机器学习技术预测自杀企图的物流和处罚物流模型的开发和外部验证:韩国的一项多中心前性队列研究
Jeong Hun Yang1, Yuree Chung2, Sang Jin Rhee3
1Department of Psychiatry, Chungnam National University Sejong Hospital, Sejong, Republic of Korea; Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Journal of psychiatric research
|July 9, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了高风险韩国人自杀企图的准确预测模型,表明处罚回归在独立队列中优于传统的后勤模型.
科学领域:
- 精神病学是一个精神病学.
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 预测自杀风险是具有挑战性的,因为模型过拟合和内部验证的局限性.
- 之前的自杀行为机器学习模型需要在不同人群中进行外部验证.
研究的目的:
- 在高风险的韩国人口中开发和验证自杀企图的预测模型.
- 为了比较逻辑回归和惩罚回归模型的准确性,用于自杀试图的预测.
主要方法:
- 利用韩国队列用于预测自杀和自杀相关行为模型 (K-COMPASS) 进行模型开发.
- 采用后勤和惩罚回归分析来预测6个月内自杀企图.
- 在一个独立的测试队列中验证了模型.
主要成果:
- 确定了关键预测因素:年轻,自杀念头,以前的尝试,焦虑,酒,压力和冲动性.
- 与后勤回归 (AUC 0.751,PPV 0.084) 相比,处罚回归模型在测试队列中获得了更高的准确性 (AUC 0.794,PPV 0.115).
- 模型甚至在外部验证队列中也表现出令人满意的预测性能.
结论:
- 基于前性队列研究的自杀企图预测模型在独立队列中显示出强大的准确性.
- 处罚回归在这个高风险群体中提供了与标准物流模型相比,对自杀企图的更高的预测准确度.
- 这些发现支持使用验证的预测模型用于自杀预防策略.
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