环境温度与特定原因死亡率之间的关联:在中国苏州进行的一项个体级案例交叉研究
Yujie Hua1, Lu Zhou2, Fang Liu1
1Department of Non-communicable Chronic Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou 215004, China.
Ecotoxicology and environmental safety
|July 9, 2024
概括
极端的寒冷和热量显著增加死亡风险,寒冷的影响持续时间更长. 这项研究强调,迫切需要制定公共卫生战略,以应对气候变化对人口健康的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球人口健康构成重大威胁.
- 环境温度上升与死亡率和发病率的增加有关.
- 了解温度与死亡率的关联对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估环境温度与中国苏州因特定原因死亡率之间的关联.
- 量化与极寒和极热相关的死亡风险.
- 调查温度相关死亡效应的持续时间.
主要方法:
- 个体级别的案例交叉设计.
- 分布滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 应用于非意外死亡数据 (2008-2022年).
- 与最低死亡温度 (MMT) 相比,对极寒 (<2.5百分位) 和极热 (>97.5百分位) 的分析.
主要成果:
- 在环境温度和非意外死亡率之间观察到一个反向的J形关系,MMT在29.1°C.
- 极寒 (RR=1.37) 的死亡风险高于极热 (RR=1.09).
- 与寒冷有关的死亡效应持续长达14天,而热效应持续2-3天. 心脏呼吸道死亡的风险更高.
结论:
- 环境极端温度与苏州因特定原因死亡率的增加有关.
- 寒冷的温度比热带更大,更长时间的死亡风险.
- 调查结果为制定针对性公共卫生战略,应对气候变化相关的死亡风险提供了证据.
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