在全球变暖下,植被越过热应激值的增加
Xiangyi Li1, Chris Huntingford2, Kai Wang1
1Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Global change biology
|July 10, 2024
概括
随着极端的高温,陆地植被的生产力急剧下降,特别是平均温度的标准偏差 (SD) 超过1.45. 与2°C相比,将变暖限制在1.5°C保留了更多安全的植物生长区域.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 极端温度显著影响陆地生态系统,但植被生产力损失的关键值尚未确定.
- 了解这些门对于预测生态系统对气候变化的反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定关键温度值,引发植被生产力的不利转变.
- 在不同的气候变化场景下预测未来的植被生产率.
- 评估1.5°C与2°C全球变暖对植被安全的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用卫星衍生的植被生产率数据和生长季节温度记录 (2001-2018).
- 根据从平均温度标准偏差 (SDs) 计算的临界温度值.
- 在中等排放场景下使用地球系统模型来预测未来的温度变化.
主要成果:
- 植被生产率的抑制开始于温度异常超过1.45 SD以上的平均值.
- 最大生产力抑制发生在超过2.98 SD的异常时,与极端高温事件有关.
- 预计平均气温将在2050年 (1.45 SD) 和2070年 (2.98 SD) 左右超过这些值,热带地区较早出现.
- 将变暖限制在1.5°C,与2°C相比,安全植被生长面积增加了13%.
结论:
- 确定了植物生产率下降的可量化的温度值.
- 强调迫切需要减缓气候变化,以保护陆地生态系统免受极端高温的影响.
- 强调将全球变暖限制在1.5°C为植被弹性提供了巨大的好处.
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