评估非洲儿童存活率的增长和实现可持续发展目标儿童死亡率目标的前景
Sunday A Adedini1,2, Seun Stephen Anjorin3, Jacob Wale Mobolaji4
1Department of Demography and Social Statistics, Federal University Oye-Ekiti, Oye-Ekiti, Nigeria.
PLOS global public health
|July 10, 2024
概括
非洲儿童生存率显示,实现可持续发展目标 (SDG) 目标3.2的进展缓慢. 增加对计划生育,熟练的助产士和女性教育的机会对于降低5岁以下的死亡率至关重要.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 儿童生存仍然是一个关键的全球卫生挑战,特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲.
- 可持续发展目标 (SDG) 目标3.2旨在结束新生儿和五岁以下儿童的可预防死亡.
- 在非洲降低五岁以下儿童死亡率 (U5MR) 的进展一直不均.
研究的目的:
- 评估非洲儿童生存率的增长与可持续发展目标目标3.2相关.
- 确定影响实现可持续发展目标目标的因素3.2.
- 绘制五岁以下儿童死亡率的地理差异.
主要方法:
- 对54个非洲国家的多国二次数据集的分析.
- 使用空间自关联局部指标 (LISA) 集群地图进行空间分析.
- 监督机器学习 (贝叶斯网络) 用于预测建模.
主要成果:
- 在54个非洲国家中,只有8个国家能够大幅减少U5MR (≤25例死亡/1,000例活产).
- 预测模型表明,如果避孕药的流行率达到78.5%,熟练的助产员达到86.3%,女性中学毕业率达到74.0%,U5MR可以降至25/1000.
- 七个国家,主要在西非/中非,形成高死亡率热点 (高U5M集群),如果没有紧急干预,可能会错过SDG 3.2目标.
结论:
- 非洲儿童生存率存在显著差异,许多国家落后于可持续发展目标3.2.
- 关键干预措施,包括增加避孕药的普及率,熟练的分娩服务,以及女性中学教育,对于实现儿童生存目标至关重要.
- 解决对医疗保健,教育,安全饮用水和计划生育服务的限制至关重要,特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲,以实现2030年目标.
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