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基于物理的机器学习算法用于预测沉积物产量:对物理一致性,灵敏性和可解释性的分析
Ali El Bilali1,2, Youssef Brouziyne3, Oumaima Attar4
1Faculty of Sciences and Techniques, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Mohammedia, Morocco. ali1gpee@gmail.com.
概括
基于物理的机器学习 (ML) 模型准确预测沉积物产量,优于传统方法. 额外树模型显示出与物理沉积物运输过程的最佳一致性,有助于流域管理.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 沉积物运输是一个主要的环境问题,影响水资源和生态系统.
- 机器学习 (ML) 为沉积物产量预测提供了潜力,但缺乏物理过程的一致性.
- 现有的ML模型引起决策者对其在环境应用中的可靠性的担忧.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种基于物理的机器学习 (ML) 方法来预测沉积物产量.
- 在沉积物运输建模中提高ML模型的准确性和物理一致性.
- 为改善ML在流域管理和沉积物减轻战略中的适用性提供一个框架.
主要方法:
- 使用高斯式,中心式,正规式和直角式的数据集生成合成的水文和子盆地数据集.
- 训练了各种ML模型,包括深度神经网络 (DNN),常规神经网络 (CNN),额外树和XGBoost (XGB).
- 将ML模型的性能与修改的通用土壤损失方程 (MUSLE) 进行了比较,并进行了可解释性分析 (Sobol,Shapley).
主要成果:
- 所有的ML模型在预测沉积物产量方面显著优于MUSLE模型,纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE) 的改进在10%至41%之间.
- 额外树模型与沉积物运输的物理过程具有卓越的一致性,通过可解释性方法进行评估.
- 与基于过程的MUSLE模型相比,DNN,CNN,Extra Tree和XGB模型在预测沉积物产量方面取得了显著的改进.
结论:
- 基于物理的ML模型为沉积物产量预测提供了更高的准确性和可靠性.
- 额外树模型的物理一致性使其成为理解和管理沉积物运输的宝贵工具.
- 该框架支持制定有效的流域规模沉积物减缓策略和最佳管理实践.
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