克服中央规划者方法 - - 优化欧洲能源转型的双层优化
David Yang Shu1, Christiane Reinert2, Jacob Mannhardt2
1Energy & Process Systems Engineering, Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
iScience
|July 11, 2024
概括
国家利益显著改变能源转型路径,改变了超过40%的容量分配,尽管气候目标的总装机容量增加了3%以上.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 经济建模经济建模
背景情况:
- 能源转型需要跨国合作才能实现温室气体减排目标.
- 各个国家优先考虑将其能源供应成本降至最低,这往往与全球优化目标相冲突.
- 现有的能源系统模型在确定成本最佳的转型战略时,经常忽视国家利益.
研究的目的:
- 为了建模欧洲能源系统过渡到2050年.
- 在共享的电力和碳市场中纳入国家经济目标和竞争.
- 分析国家利益对成本最佳能源转型途径的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用双级优化来模拟一个具有竞争力的欧洲能源市场.
- 设计到2050年的能源系统过渡场景.
- 将一个集中优化模型的结果与一个包含国家利益的模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 包括国家利益在内,与集中优化相比,整体装机容量增加了3%的适度.
- 各个国家的装机容量的分布发生了巨大的变化,在许多国家超过了40%的变化.
- 国家目标对能源基础设施的具体部署有重大影响.
结论:
- 在能源系统模型中忽视国家利益可能会导致对国家容量扩张需求的预测不准确.
- 各国之间的合作对于实现高效和公平的能源转型至关重要.
- 双层优化有效地捕捉了能源系统规划中国家竞争的复杂性.
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