量化相互依赖网络引起的经济脆弱性
Shokoufeh Pourshahabi1, Shade T Shutters2, Rachata Muneepeerakul1
1Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America.
PloS one
|July 11, 2024
概括
本研究引入了潜在间接脆弱性指数 (PIVI),以量化全球贸易和投资相互依存的经济风险. PIVI模型确定了国家如何通过中介国家间接地脆弱,为经济政策提供了洞察力.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 外国直接投资 (FDI) 是指外国直接投资.
背景情况:
- 经济全球化通过贸易和投资增加了各国之间的相互依赖.
- 现有的研究还没有系统地量化这些相互依存关系产生的间接经济脆弱性.
- 了解这些弱点对于国家经济安全和政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和引入一种新的指标,即潜在间接脆弱性指数 (PIVI).
- 量化贸易和外国直接投资 (FDI) 网络相互依赖导致的经济脆弱性.
- 证明PIVI在评估国家经济风险方面的实用性.
主要方法:
- 开发了潜在间接脆弱性指数 (PIVI) 模型.
- PIVI模型考虑了一个目标国家,一个投资国家,以及作为管道的中介国家.
- 通过将目标国家对中介机构的商品依赖率乘以中介机构对投资国的外国直接投资依赖率来量化间接脆弱性.
主要成果:
- 使用2019年美国贸易和关于中国的外国直接投资数据展示了PIVI的应用.
- 确定了几个亚洲国家和特定商品 (农产品,原材料) 作为潜在的间接经济影响的道.
- 强调越南作为美国进口来源和中国大量外国直接投资接收国的重要风险;确定,和铜等关键矿物质是诱导脆弱性的.
结论:
- PIVI有效量化了由复杂的全球贸易和外国直接投资网络产生的间接经济脆弱性.
- 调查结果表明,对多元化贸易伙伴和战略投资有政策影响,以减轻已确定的风险.
- PIVI是一种灵活且可适应的指标,用于细微的经济脆弱性评估.
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