长期条件积累和老年人死亡率的轨迹:使用英语老龄化纵向研究的基于群体的轨迹建模方法
Christos V Chalitsios1, Cornelia Santoso1, Yvonne Nartey1
1Primary Care Research Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
BMJ open
|July 11, 2024
概括
老年人发展长期条件 (LTC) 沿着不同的轨迹. 确定这些模式有助于预测死亡风险,并为更好的健康结果量身定制干预措施.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 多病症,即多种长期疾病 (LTC) 的存在,在老龄化人口中越来越令人担忧.
- 了解LTC积累的轨迹对于有效的医疗保健规划和干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 将老年人根据他们的长期条件 (LTC) 积累轨迹分为不同的集群.
- 描述这些集群并量化它们与全因死亡率的关联.
主要方法:
- 一项使用英语老化纵向研究 (ELSA) 的纵向研究,对15091名50岁以上的参与者进行了9年的纵向研究.
- 使用基于组的轨迹建模来确定LTC积累模式.
- 使用回归模型来评估轨迹成员,社会人口统计和死亡率之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 确定了五种不同的LTC轨迹:"没有LTC"",单一LTC"",不断变化的多病态"",中度多病态"和"高多病态".
- 高龄和少数民族身份与更高的多病态轨迹有关.
- 高等教育和就业与积累多个LTC的可能性较低相关.
- 所有确定的LTC轨迹与"没有LTC"组相比,与所有原因死亡率的增加有关.
结论:
- 多种疾病的发展遵循不同的轨迹,受年龄,种族,教育和就业的影响.
- 使用这些轨迹的风险分层可以识别老年人有更高的LTC恶化风险.
- 根据已识别的轨迹进行量身定制的干预措施,有可能预防老年人死亡率.
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