调整日志二次模型以估计新生儿的年龄和特定原因死亡率
Jamie Perin1, Li Liu1,2, Luke C Mullany1
1Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
PloS one
|July 12, 2024
概括
准确估计新生儿死亡原因在资源较低的环境中至关重要. 这项研究调整了一个模型,以提供精确的,年龄特定的新生儿死亡原因估计,改进了标准方法.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 新生儿死亡率估计缺乏年龄特定的解决方案,尽管死亡原因异质.
- 口头尸检是许多低资源环境中死亡原因确定的主要方法.
- 现有的方法无法充分考虑新生儿期内因特定原因死亡率的变化.
研究的目的:
- 适应和应用一个逻辑二次模型来估计年龄和特定原因的新生儿死亡率.
- 通过对尼泊尔农村群体的交叉验证来评估模型的准确性.
- 将适应模型的性能与标准方法进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用了957名新生儿的尼泊尔油按摩研究 (NOMS) 队列的数据.
- 来自Wilmoth等的经过调整的日志方程建模技术. 和吉洛特等人.
- 雇员休假三个月的交叉验证来评估模型的性能.
主要成果:
- 调整后的模型产生了较低的交叉验证误差:0.9/1000活产婴儿为早产,1.1/1000活产婴儿为出生窒息.
- 标准方法的误差明显更高 (分别为7.4/1000和7.8/1000).
- 对于不太常见的原因,如先天性形和肺炎,观察到更高的误差.
结论:
- 调整后的日志二次模型提供了稳定而精确的新生儿因特定原因的死亡率估计在低资源环境中.
- 结果表明,使用口头尸检数据进行高分辨率死亡原因估计的可行性.
- 调查结果与中国高质量监控系统的估计值相似.
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