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"一带一路"倡议国家货币风险分析
Mengyang Li1, Wencui Liu1, Lei Wang2,3
1School of Finance, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics, Urumqi, China.
PloS one
|July 12, 2024
概括
本研究评估了"一带一路"倡议 (BRI) 国家的货币风险,发现美元 (USD) 是最具竞争力的. 货币选择建议考虑国家竞争力和发展状况.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际金融 国际金融
- 可持续发展研究 可持续发展研究
背景情况:
- 联合国的可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 强调了发展的债务可持续性.
- 中国的"一带一路"倡议 (BRI) 与可持续发展目标一致,需要参与国家的债务可持续性评估.
- 关于一带一路国家债务可持续性的现有研究主要集中在主权风险上,忽视了货币风险.
研究的目的:
- 调查一带一路国家内的货币风险降低策略.
- 评估货币竞争力作为"一带一路"倡议债务稳定的关键因素.
- 为货币选择提供数据驱动的建议,以减轻金融风险.
主要方法:
- 分析了142个参与"一带一路"倡议的国家的货币竞争力数据.
- 在BRI背景下对主要全球货币 (美元,欧元,日元,英,日元) 的比较评估.
- 审查货币表现趋势的时间和地理影响.
主要成果:
- 美元在"一带一路"国家中具有最高的货币竞争力.
- 欧元 (EUR) 作为次要选择,中国人民币 (CNY) 显示出新兴的潜力.
- 地理联系影响货币的突出地位,欧元和美元领先,其次是CNY,英和日元作为保守的选择.
结论:
- 货币竞争力是"一带一路"倡议中债务可持续性的关键,但未被充分研究的组成部分.
- 美元提供了最稳定的竞争优势,而欧元和中国元则具有不同程度的适用性.
- 最佳的货币选择需要一个细微的方法,平衡国家经济因素,地缘政治关系和发展目标.
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