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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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根据场景和模型的不确定性,气候变化对城市洪水的规模和频率的影响
Luyao Wang1, Zhenyu Huang1, Bin Gan2
1School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 10084, China.
Journal of environmental management
|July 12, 2024
概括
气候变化加剧了城市洪水. 本研究通过结合气候模型,场景和城市排水数据来评估中国未来的洪水风险,以告知管理策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 城市水文学 城市水文学
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了城市洪水,造成社会经济损失.
- 现有的研究往往忽略了事件规模和年度规模的洪水影响.
- 很少有研究将气候场景/模型的不确定性与排水管理的洪水风险相结合.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对中国城市洪水的影响,跨事件和年度规模.
- 纳入气候模型和情景中的不确定性.
- 为城市排水系统管理提供基于数据的建议.
主要方法:
- 在四种气候模型 (HadGEM2-ES,MPI-ESM-MR,NorESM1-M,FGOALS-g2) 和三种代表性度路径 (RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5) 下,对2040年代,2060年代和2080年代的十个回归期的降雨量进行统计缩小.
- 整合地理数据以建模城市排水系统.
- 计算年度洪水量预期变化比率,考虑事件规模和年度规模降水.
主要成果:
- 在各种未来气候条件下,中国各个城市的年度洪水量预期的预测变化.
- 从不同的气候模型和排放场景中产生的不确定性量化.
- 综合洪水风险的综合评估,考虑模型和场景的变化.
结论:
- 中国未来的城市洪水风险受到气候变化的重大影响,影响因模型和场景而异.
- 不确定性分析对于可靠的城市洪水风险评估至关重要.
- 结果为提高城市排水系统对气候变化的弹性提供了实际见解.
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