用机器学习对第二次原发性乳腺癌患者的生存预测:对SEER数据库的分析
Yafei Wu1, Yaheng Zhang2, Siyu Duan2
1School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiang'an South Road, Xiang'an District, Xiamen, Fujian 361102, China; Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment of Fujian Province, Xiamen, Fujian, China; School of Nursing, Faculty of Health and Social Sciences, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Computer methods and programs in biomedicine
|July 12, 2024
概括
第一次原发性癌症幸存者面临着第二次原发性乳腺癌 (SPBC) 的高风险. 随机生存森林模型有效地预测了SPBC患者的生存率,有助于监测高风险人口.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 第一次原发性乳腺癌 (FPC) 幸存者患第二次原发性乳腺癌 (SPBC) 的风险较高.
- 有限的预后研究存在,专门针对SPBC患者.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证预后模型,以预测SPBC患者的整体存活率.
- 将机器学习模型的性能与传统的Cox比例危险回归进行比较.
主要方法:
- 从监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 计划中对10,321名女性FPC幸存者进行了回顾性分析.
- 构建和验证四个机器学习模型和一个CoxPH模型.
- 使用单变量和多变量考克斯回归的特征选择;通过时间依赖的AUC (t-AUC) 和集成的布莱尔得分 (iBrier) 进行性能评估.
主要成果:
- 随机生存森林模型在测试和验证组中都表现出卓越的性能 (t-AUC ~ 0.80,iBrier ~ 0.12).
- 确定的主要预测特征包括年龄,阶段,区域节点阳性,延迟,放射治疗和手术.
- 该模型成功预测了SPBC患者的整体存活率.
结论:
- 随机生存森林模型是预测SPBC患者整体存活率的强大工具.
- 该模型可以帮助监测和管理SPBC高风险人群.
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