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2100年欧洲的寨卡和奇孔古尼亚 - - 一个基于GIS的风险估计模型
J Kronen1, M Leuchner1, T Küpper2
1Physical Geography and Climatology, Institute of Geography, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany.
Travel medicine and infectious disease
|July 12, 2024
概括
由于气温上升,气候变化将扩大欧洲寨卡病毒 (ZIKV) 和奇孔古尼亚病毒 (CHIKV) 传播的风险区域. 未来的气候场景预测,整个大陆对这些载体传播疾病的适应性增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 温度是影响载体传播传染病全球传播的关键因素.
- 预计气候变化将改变这些疾病的地理分布.
- 预计欧洲将经历越来越适合寨卡病毒 (ZIKV) 和奇孔古尼亚病毒 (CHIKV) 传播的温度.
研究的目的:
- 评估在不同气候场景下欧洲ZIKV和CHIKV传播的未来温度适应性.
- 确定这些载体传播疾病的潜在未来风险区域.
- 为预防和控制疾病的公共卫生战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用代表性度路径 (RCP) 4.5和RCP 8.5气候场景进行了地理空间分析.
- 在欧洲范围内绘制了ZIKV和CHIKV传输的未来温度适应性.
- 影响地区的百分比为每个场景计算.
主要成果:
- 预计气温上升将扩大欧洲ZIKV和CHIKV传播的风险区域.
- 西班牙,葡萄牙,地中海沿岸和黑海地区特别面临CHIKV的风险.
- 据预计,欧洲各地的大面积将适合ZIKV和CHIKV传输.
结论:
- 虽然温度是其中一个因素,但气候场景有效地描绘了载体传播疾病的未来风险区域.
- 监测和适应战略对于管理欧洲潜在的未来本土传播和流行病至关重要.
- 积极的公共卫生干预是必要的,以应对不断变化的威胁格局.
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