关于东南亚气候变化影响和粮食安全的案例研究
Daria Taniushkina1, Aleksander Lukashevich2, Valeriy Shevchenko2
1Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russia. D.Taniushkina@skoltech.ru.
Scientific reports
|July 12, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁到农业,影响作物生产预测. 这项研究使用机器学习和气候预测来预测东南亚地区未来的产量和土地适用性,揭示了潜在的下降和缓解策略.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 农业面临着气候变化,资源稀缺和产量停滞等重大挑战.
- 准确的作物生产预测对于全球贸易,发展和人道主义援助至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往缺乏整合气候预测和详细的农业数据.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种机器学习框架,用于预测作物生产.
- 评估未来农业用地在气候变化情景下的适用性.
- 预测区域作物产量变化,并确定东南亚地区的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 利用结合模型相互比较项目第5阶段 (CMIP5) 气候预测.
- 综合气候数据与历史农业趋势和肥料使用.
- 应用了一个全面的机器学习模型来预测作物生产和土地利用.
主要成果:
- 预计到2028年,东南亚地区的作物生产将出现显著的区域差异.
- 预计如果不进行干预,印度尼西亚,马来西亚,菲律宾和越南的耕地面积可能会下降10%以上.
- 预计越南大米产量将下降19%,泰国将下降7%,菲律宾将增加5%.
结论:
- 气候变化和人类活动对农业生产率产生了重大影响.
- 调查结果强调需要积极的政策制定和国际合作.
- 确定了潜在的缓解策略,以应对预计的作物生产和耕地利用量下降.
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