中国粮食生产与需求不匹配的时空空间分析以及对农业结构调整的影响

中国粮食生产与需求不匹配的时空空间分析以及对农业结构调整的影响

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Mengyao Long¹, Xiaoyu Xiong¹, Huilong Lin¹

¹State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-Ecosystems, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China.

Foods (Basel, Switzerland)

|July 13, 2024

概括

中国的食品消费显示对畜牧产品的需求日益增长,导致生产的空间不匹配. 侧重于草原农业的农业改革有可能解决这些不平衡问题.

科学领域:

农业经济学农业经济学
环境科学环境科学
粮食安全粮食安全

背景情况:

中国的食品消费模式正在演变,牲畜产品摄入量显著增加.
在中国各地,粮食生产和消费需求之间存在显著的空间不匹配.

研究的目的:

分析中国的食品消费模式,空间不匹配和生产潜力.
根据这些分析,探索农业改革战略.
确定最佳方法,以提高粮食生产与需求的平衡.

主要方法:

使用食品等价单位 (FEU) 进行消费分析.
使用空间不匹配模型与来自统计年鉴的数据来评估生产需求不匹配.
使用CASA和Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算粮食生产潜力,并从遥感数据中结合净初级生产率 (NPP).

主要成果:

畜牧产品的消费正在增加,食草动物畜牧产品的空间不匹配指数最大 (2019年为22.8198.12).
粮食配给和食用牲畜产品的不匹配在黄黄线周围对称地增加.
生产因素被确定为粮食生产与需求不匹配的主要驱动因素.
生产力从东南向西北空间下降,受到人类活动的重大影响.

结论:

追求草原农业作为调整战略可以显著提高生产潜力,达到4540.76 × 10^7公斤·FEU.
建议制定草原农业计划,强调发展发达的南部地区,以优化资源利用和减轻空间不匹配.

关键词:

食品等价单位 (FEU) 是指食品等价单位.草地农业草地农业净初级生产率净初级生产率生产与需求不匹配的情况.空间不匹配指数的指数

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