自杀企图的季节性趋势-关键词相关搜索:谷歌趋势分析
Krzysztof Bartosz Klimiuk1, Dawid Krefta2, Michał Krawczyk3
1Department of Public Health and Social Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical University of Gdańsk, 80-210 Gdańsk, Poland.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|July 13, 2024
概括
季节性自杀率在温暖的月份达到峰值,但在线搜索自杀关键词与这些峰值没有很强的相关性. 这突显了使用搜索数据实时预防自杀的复杂性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数字健康数字健康
背景情况:
- 自杀是全球公共卫生问题,具有复杂的影响因素,包括季节性.
- 在线搜索行为被探索为潜在的实时指标,人口层面的自杀想法.
- 了解自杀企图的季节性趋势以及相关的在线搜索对于预防至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了分析波兰自杀企图的季节性趋势,超过十年.
- 调查与自杀相关的在线搜索行为与实际自杀企图率之间的相关性.
- 评估在线搜索数据对预测自杀季节性的有用性.
主要方法:
- 跨截面时间序列分析自杀企图数据 (波兰警察总部) 和谷歌趋势搜索数据超过10年.
- 利用了66个与自杀相关的关键词,这些关键词来自波兰自杀笔记集.
- 使用线性回归,季节性曼-肯德尔测试和TBATS模型进行数据分析.
主要成果:
- 自杀率表现出明显的季节性模式,在温暖的月份观察到的峰值.
- 没有发现与自杀相关的关键词搜索频率和自杀高峰数月之间的显著相关性.
- 在线搜索行为的季节性趋势并不总是反映自杀企图的季节性模式.
结论:
- 虽然自杀率显示季节性,但在线搜索数据可能不是这些峰值的直接实时预测器.
- 需要进一步的研究来完善数字足迹的使用,以监视和预防自杀.
- 研究结果表明,有可能开发算法来预测自杀率和识别风险人群,但要谨慎对待搜索数据的局限性.
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