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在博茨瓦纳的奥卡万戈三角洲,蓝藻细菌开花的异常增加背后的环境驱动因素

Jan Veerman¹, Deepak R Mishra¹, Abhishek Kumar²

¹Center for Geospatial Research, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.

|July 13, 2024

概括

持续的干燥条件导致2020年在博茨瓦纳的奥卡万戈三角洲发生了强烈的菌有害藻类繁殖 (CyanoHABs). 这项研究确定了关键的环境驱动因素,有助于未来监测和预测脆弱的非洲生态系统中CyanoHAB爆发的情况.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
环境科学环境科学
遥感遥感遥感遥感

背景情况:

菌有害藻类繁殖 (CyanoHABs) 对生态系统和社区构成风险.
奥卡万戈三角洲在2020年经历了严重的CyanoHAB,需要对其驱动因素进行调查.
了解区域驱动因素对于预测和管理未来的开花事件至关重要.

研究的目的:

确定奥卡万戈三角洲中强烈的CyanoHABs的主要环境驱动因素.
分析气候,景观和植被变量与蓝菌活动之间的关系.
为监测和预测该地区未来的CyanoHAB疫情提供基础.

主要方法:

利用了13个独立的环境变量,包括气候,气象和景观数据.
生成的年度土地使用土地覆盖面 (LULC) 地图 (2017-2020年) 精度为89%.
采用了通用添加模型 (GAM) 和结构方程模型 (SEM) 来确定驱动因素的重要性.
使用规范化差异叶绿素指数 (NDCI) 和绿线高度 (GLH) 作为藻类度的代理值.

主要成果:

GAM模型解释了GLH (蓝菌代理) 89.9%的变异.
主要驱动因素包括每月降水 (8.8%),帕尔默干旱严重程度指数 (PDSI) (3.2%),湿地面积变化 (7.5%) 和NDVI (5.4%).
PDSI,NDVI和GLH之间的负相关性表明干旱条件加剧了有毒的CyanoHABs.

结论:

持续的干旱条件是奥卡万戈三角洲蓝藻细菌活动增加的主要驱动因素.
这项研究为数据稀缺的非洲生态系统中的CyanoHAB驱动器提供了新的见解.
这些发现支持对奥卡万戈三角洲和类似地区未来的CyanoHAB事件进行加强的监测和预测策略.

关键词:

色HABs 的使用方法环境驱动因素环境驱动因素一般化的增材模型.遥感是一种远程传感.哨兵-2 卫星 - 哨兵-2 卫星结构方程建模结构方程建模

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