多发性骨髓瘤发病率,死亡率和流行率估计和预测,澳大利亚,1982-2043:一个统计建模研究
Qingwei Luo1, Deanne Jenkin1, Marianne F Weber1
1The Daffodil Centre, the University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW.
The Medical journal of Australia
|July 14, 2024
概括
多发性骨髓瘤的发病率在澳大利亚正在上升,预测到2043年将增加15%. 尽管死亡率下降,但病例增加需要投资预防和早期发现多发性骨髓瘤的研究.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
- 公共卫生统计 公共卫生统计
背景情况:
- 多发性骨髓瘤发病率和死亡率趋势需要检查,以告知未来的医疗保健规划.
- 了解长期生存对于管理不断增长的患者群体至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析1982年至2018年澳大利亚多发性骨髓瘤发病率和死亡率的历史记录.
- 预测到2043年多发性骨髓瘤的未来发病率,死亡率和患病率.
主要方法:
- 一项基于人口的统计建模研究,使用澳大利亚卫生与福利研究所的数据.
- 对历史趋势的joinpoint回归分析和预测的年龄-时期-队列模型.
- 修改了计数方法以估计5年和30年流行率.
主要成果:
- 多发性骨髓瘤的发病率增加 (APC为2006-2018年的1.9%),而死亡率则下降 (APC为1990-2018年的-0.4%).
- 预计到2043年,发病率将上升14.9%,死亡率预计将下降27.5%.
- 到2043年,每年诊断增加89.2%,死亡增加31.7%,30年流行率增加163%.
结论:
- 预计多发性骨髓瘤发病率和流行率的增加需要对预防和早期检测进行投资.
- 考虑到患有多发性骨髓瘤的人数不断增加,长期治疗和护理的计划是必不可少的.
- 预计死亡率将继续下降,但不断增长的疾病负担需要积极的公共卫生战略.
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