投资歇斯底里:一个实证论文土耳其案例
Koray Yıldırım1, Neşe Algan, Harun Bal1
1Department of Economics, Cukurova University, Adana, Turkey.
Evaluation review
|July 14, 2024
概括
投资歇斯底里严重影响了2008年危机后土耳其经济. 生产力冲击,而不是利率或GDP,推动了这种歇斯底里,迫使政策重点关注经济稳定的生产力.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 2008年后的全球经济复苏受到质疑,加剧了关于经济歇斯底里的辩论.
- 具体而言,投资歇斯底里症在最近的经济讨论中占据了重要地位.
研究的目的:
- 调查土耳其经济中的投资歇斯底里及其潜在动态.
- 分析土耳其投资,GDP,利率和生产率之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 使用结构破裂测试来检测关键经济变量中的歇斯底里存在.
- 传统和不对称的格兰杰因果关系测试被用来确定歇斯底里斯的基本驱动因素.
- 分析包括投资,国内生产总值 (GDP),利率和生产率数据.
主要成果:
- 结构破裂测试证实了土耳其经济中存在的歇斯底里.
- 传统的格兰杰因果关系测试显示,利率,GDP或生产率与投资没有显著的因果关系.
- 不对称因果关系测试表明,利率与投资之间没有关系,与GDP有反向关系,与生产率有不对称关系.
- 生产力冲击被确定为影响投资歇斯底里的主要动态,由总因子生产率 (TFP) 不确定性加剧.
结论:
- 歇斯底里症是土耳其投资格局的一个重要因素,特别明显在于缺乏对利率变化的反应.
- 生产力冲击成为投资歇斯底里的主要驱动因素,这表明需要以生产力为重点的政策干预.
- 总因子生产率 (TFP) 的高度不确定性进一步加剧了投资歇斯底里,强调了它在经济政策制定中的重要性.
关键词:
E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E12 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E2 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 E1 È È È È È È È ÈE2222 是一个很好的标签.L1010 一个人的生活.不对称的因果关系.这是歇斯底里症.投资投资是投资的投资方式.结构上的破裂.
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