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极端的水气候变化改变了寒冷盆地的水文敏感度

Shilei Peng¹, Xianli Xu², Renjun Liao³

¹Huanjiang Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, Guangxi Key Laboratory of Karst Ecological Processes and Services, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha 410125, China; Research Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 0608589, Japan.

The Science of the total environment

|July 14, 2024

概括

极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端. 热干条件会降低产量,而极端寒冷可能会增加沉积物,需要适应性水资源管理.

科学领域:

水文学水文学
气候科学气候科学
环境科学环境科学

背景情况:

极端气候事件越来越多地破坏水文过程,影响水的可用性和沉积物的动态.
水文变化和气候极端之间的关系尚未得到充分研究,尤其是在面临气候变化的寒冷地区.
寒冷地区对农业和城市发展至关重要,使它们的水文系统脆弱.

研究的目的:

调查气候极端模式转变对石卡里河流域 (IRB) 水文制度的影响.
为分析气候极端影响水和沉积物产量制定基于产量的二分法框架.
在不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景下预测未来的水文变化.

主要方法:

使用修改后的土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT).
综合下调合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 一般循环模型 (GCM) 气候预测.
员工共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 未来气候预测的场景.

主要成果:

确定了与极端气候事件相关的水和沉积物产量的显著年度变化.
热干条件与较低的水和沉积物产量相关.
在IRB中,寒冷极端的增加与较高的沉积物产量有关.
更热和更干燥的模式可能会建立新的水文制度和转移产量分类值.
根据SSP585的预测,水资源和沉积物运输的增加,增加了洪水和沉积风险.

结论:

极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端气候极端
未来的气候变化,特别是在SSP585下,对IRB的水供应和沉积物运输构成重大风险.
适应性水资源管理策略对于减轻因全球气候变化而改变的水文制度的影响至关重要.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化水气极端情况,SWAT模型.石卡里河石卡里河土壤侵蚀导致土壤侵蚀.水的收益率水的收益率

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