为加利福尼亚州新兴的零排放轻型汽车市场提供车辆选择建模
Andrew F Burke1, Jingyuan Zhao1, Marshall R Miller1
1Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Heliyon
|July 15, 2024
概括
仅仅是激励措施不会在最初推动零排放汽车 (ZEV) 的采用;基础设施是关键. 后来,激励措施提高了ZEV的市场份额,到2040年,电池电动汽车 (BEV) 将主导加利福尼亚.
科学领域:
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 市场分析市场分析
背景情况:
- 预测零排放汽车 (ZEV) 市场动态对于政策和投资至关重要.
- 消费者采用ZEV受到包括成本,基础设施和激励因素在内的复杂相互作用的影响.
- 加利福尼亚州雄心勃勃的ZEV目标需要对市场透驱动因素有充分的了解.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用动态离散车辆选择模型 (VCM) 来预测ZEV从2020年到2040年的市场份额.
- 分析包括成本,基础设施和激励在内的14个决策因素在各种场景下对ZEV采用的影响.
- 评估加利福尼亚州ZEV目标的可行性并确定必要的政策措施.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个动态离散车辆选择模型 (VCM),以模拟消费者对ZEV的购买决策.
- 该模型纳入了14个关键决策因素,包括车辆成本,基础设施可用性和激励策略.
- 在八个不同的场景中,对2020-2040年期间的市场份额和透率进行了预测.
主要成果:
- 最初的ZEV市场透受到便利的限制,特别是燃料电池车辆 (FCV),直到建立适当的基础设施.
- 在后来的几年里,激励对ZEV的市场透变得更加关键,特别是当有强大的基础设施网络支持时.
- 预计到2040年,电池电动汽车 (BEV) 将主导加州市场,这可能导致插电式混合动力电动汽车 (PHEV) 和FCV的下降.
结论:
- 实现加利福尼亚州的ZEV目标需要一种持续的,多方面的方法,将技术成本降低,模型多样性,基础设施开发和有吸引力的消费者激励措施结合起来.
- 没有单一的措施是足够的;努力的结合对于广泛采用ZEV至关重要.
- 该建模方法可用于预测全球其他地区ZEV市场动态.
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