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时空动态关系和城市空间形态变化和土地表面温度的模拟:中国成都的一个案例研究

Ling Jian^1,2,3, Xiaojiang Xia^1,2,3, Yuanqiao Wang¹

¹College of Geography and Planning, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, China.

Frontiers in public health

|July 15, 2024

概括

城市空间形式的变化对陆地表面温度 (LST) 有重大影响,建筑环境比自然环境发挥更大的作用. 未来的热环境可能会变暖,将城市热岛效应转移到中心.

科学领域:

城市气候学城市气候学
地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
环境科学环境科学

背景情况:

了解城市发展和当地气候之间的相互作用对于可持续的城市规划至关重要.
土地表面温度 (LST) 是城市气候动态的一个关键指标.

研究的目的:

探索当地气候区 (LCZ) 的时空演变及其与成都市的LST变化之间的关系.
揭示城市空间形式的变化如何影响LST.
预测未来的LST趋势和城市热岛模式.

主要方法:

监测3D城市空间形式的演变 (2010-2020年).
普通最小平方 (OLS) 模型用于城市模式和LST之间的动态相关性 (DR) 分析.
时空立方体模型和新兴的热点分析LST模式.
曲线拟合和随机森林用于LST预测 (2025年).

主要成果:

城市空间形式经历了三个不同的阶段:增量扩张,更新和生态转型.
建筑环境因素,特别是建筑密度,对LST增长的影响比自然环境因素更大.
在LST中观察到一个一致的变暖趋势,振荡和新的热点模式主导着LST的动态.
城市形式和LST之间的动态相关性因时间和建筑环境类型而异,而自然环境显示出一致的正相关性.

结论:

预计城市热环境将变暖,城市热岛效应将集中在市中心.
城市规划策略必须考虑建筑环境演变对LST的重大影响,以减轻未来的变暖.

关键词:

当地气候区域局部气候区域普通最小平方模型空间时间立方体.城市景观格局的模式.城市规划是城市规划.

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