预测潜在的入侵者,以防止全球未来的生物入侵
Arman N Pili1,2, Boris Leroy3, John G Measey4,5,6
1School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
Global change biology
|July 15, 2024
概括
全球贸易增加了生物入侵. 这项研究开发了一种定量工具,通过分析特征来预测入侵物种,确定了160种两动物和爬行动物面临引入风险,57种可能建立外来种群.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物安全是生物安全.
- 侵袭性物种管理 侵袭性物种管理
背景情况:
- 贸易和运输的全球化推动了生物入侵.
- 防止外来入侵物种需要强大的生物安全基础设施.
- 预测潜在的入侵者,特别是那些没有入侵历史的入侵者,仍然具有挑战性.
研究的目的:
- 开发基于入侵综合征的定量入侵风险评估工具.
- 通过识别潜在的入侵物种来支持生物安全决策.
- 解开影响物种运输/引入和建立的因素.
主要方法:
- 利用多重推算与链式方程工作流来估计入侵综合征.
- 模拟的入侵综合征使用物种的生命史,生态特征和宏观生态模式.
- 全球对两动物和爬行动物 (16,236种) 的预测模型.
主要成果:
- 侵袭综合征模型显示出高预测准确度.
- 运输/引入物种是常见的,在被破坏的息地壮成长.
- 已建立的外来种群包括大型的泛型物种,具有广泛的本地范围.
结论:
- 预计有160种两动物和爬行动物面临意外引入的风险.
- 确定了57种具有建立外来种群的高风险的物种.
- 开发了一种可靠,可转移和强大的预防生物安全工具.
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