预测需要的息和临终关怀使用爬行趋势方法与细分光滑的预测
Valentyna G Nesterenko1, Iryna V Redka2, Roman O Sukhonosov1
1KHARKIV NATIONAL MEDICAL UNIVERSITY, KHARKIV, UKRAINE.
概括
与线性趋势相比,爬行趋势方法显著提高了成人息和临终关怀 (PHC) 需求预测准确度. 为了可靠的儿科PHC需求预测,需要进一步细化数据.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健分析 医疗保健分析
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 准确预测息和临终关怀 (PHC) 需求对于资源配置和患者护理规划至关重要.
- 传统的预测方法,如线性趋势,可能无法完全捕捉复杂的需求动态.
研究的目的:
- 评估线性,对数和指数趋势方法对PHC需求预测的准确性.
- 评估改进的预测方法的有效性,特别是细分平滑的爬行趋势.
主要方法:
- 2018-2020年的需求数据被用于通过线性趋势分析预测2021-2022年PHC需求.
- 使用带有细分平滑的爬行趋势方法来提高预测准确度.
- 根据2022年可用的统计数据验证了预测.
主要成果:
- 对于2022年的线性趋势预测估计有87,254名成人和46,122名儿童PHC需求.
- 爬行趋势方法对成年PHC需求的准确性和可靠性提高了4.7倍.
- 使用爬行趋势方法预测儿科PHC需求的准确性较低,突出显示了数据的局限性.
结论:
- 爬行趋势方法在PHC需求预测中提供了卓越的准确性和可靠性,特别是在成年人群中.
- 改善医疗和人口统计数据,特别是关于恶性新生体和先天性形,对于精确的儿科PHC需要预测至关重要.
相关概念视频
Continuing Care
1.5K
Continuing care describes the variety of health, personal, and social services provided over a prolonged period. The need for continuing care is increasing because people are living longer. Many people do not have families or others to care for them. Continuing care is mainly for patients who are disabled, functionally dependent, or suffering from a terminal disease. It is available within institutional settings or in homes. Examples include nursing centers or facilities, assisted living,...
1.5K
Cancer Survival Analysis
340
Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...
340
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
406
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
406
Kaplan-Meier Approach
123
The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a non-parametric method used to estimate the survival function from time-to-event data. In medical research, it is frequently employed to measure the proportion of patients surviving for a certain period after treatment. This estimator is fundamental in analyzing time-to-event data, making it indispensable in clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and reliability engineering. By estimating survival probabilities, researchers can evaluate treatment effectiveness,...
123
Residuals and Least-Squares Property
7.3K
The vertical distance between the actual value of y and the estimated value of y. In other words, it measures the vertical distance between the actual data point and the predicted point on the line
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
7.3K
Current Trends in Nursing I
1.5K
Current trends in nursing include:
1.5K


