广泛屠杀大对牛结核病的影响不存在
Paul R Torgerson1, Sonja Hartnack2, Philip Rasmussen2,3
1Section of Veterinary Epidemiology, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland. paul.torgerson@uzh.ch.
Scientific reports
|July 15, 2024
概括
随机除试验 (RBCT) 数据的重新分析表明,除并不能减少牛的牛结核病 (bTB). 大多数统计模型没有发现对bTB群体发病率的切割有效性的证据.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 野生动物疾病生态学 野生动物疾病生态学
- 疾病控制中的统计建模.
背景情况:
- 英国的政府政策旨在通过包括欧洲 (Meles meles) 屠杀在内的措施消除牛结核病 (bTB).
- 随机杀试验 (RBCT) (1998-2005) 报告说,在杀后,公牛的bTB发病率显著降低.
- 自2013年以来,人们对子杀计划的有效性产生了担忧,一些分析质疑了最初的RBCT调查结果.
研究的目的:
- 用一系列统计模型重新检查随机屠杀试验 (RBCT) 的数据.
- 评估子杀对牛结核病 (bTB) 群体发病率的影响的证据.
- 调查疾病控制管理中可再生性危机的潜在驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 重新分析了1998年至2005年的现有RBCT数据.
- 应用各种统计模型来评估bTB群体发生率.
- 比较各种分析选项的结果,重点关注"确认"和"总"群体发病率数据.
主要成果:
- 大多数用于RBCT数据的统计模型没有证据表明子杀减少了"确认"的bTB群体发生率.
- 在最初的RBCT报告中使用的统计模型被确定为非最佳,并且可能过度适应数据.
- 这些发现与随后的分析 (2013-2019年) 相一致,该分析也发现,在英格兰,子杀对疾病控制没有好处.
结论:
- 没有足够的证据来得出结论,即在RBCT中实施的主动子杀有效地减少了牛中的bTB分解发生率.
- 原始RBCT的有效性结论可能是由于使用非标准的统计方法.
- 该研究强调了疾病控制研究中的可重复性,特别是密集畜牧业的潜在问题.
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