确定和减少农业气候影响评估中不确定性的途径
Bin Wang1,2, Jonas Jägermeyr3,4,5, Garry J O'Leary6,7
1New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, New South Wales, Australia. bin.a.wang@dpi.nsw.gov.au.
Nature food
|July 15, 2024
概括
气候变化对农业影响评估的不确定性主要来自作物模型. 这项研究提出了一种标准化的方法来量化这些不确定性,并提出了减少它们的途径,以获得更可靠的农业预测.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候变化建模的模型.
- 环境科学环境科学
背景情况:
- 气候和影响模型对于评估气候变化对农业生产力的影响至关重要.
- 多模组合揭示了这些评估中的重大不确定性,但缺乏系统的量化方法.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种标准化的方法,用于将气候变化对农业影响的多模型组合研究中的不确定性归因.
- 确定农业预测中不确定性的主要来源,并提出减少这些不确定性的方法.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个标准化的框架,用于多模型组合研究中的不确定性归因.
- 分析了农业模型相互比较和改进项目 (AgMIP) 的见解,以告知这一方法.
- 农业预测模型不同组成部分的量化不确定性贡献.
主要成果:
- 确定作物模型过程是农业预测中的主要不确定性来源,占50%以上.
- 这一发现排除了在分析中未明确测量的未定量化"隐藏"不确定性.
- 该研究为了解气候变化影响评估中的不确定性来源提供了定量基础.
结论:
- 一种标准化的方法有效地归因于多模型气候变化影响研究中的不确定性.
- 减少作物模型过程中的不确定性对于提高农业预测可靠性至关重要.
- 提出了多维战略,以减轻未来对农业气候变化影响评估中的不确定性.
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