在患者层面预测慢性病的经济负担:一个微观模拟建模研究
Steven Chadban1, Mustafa Arıcı2, Albert Power3
1Royal Prince Alfred Hospital and University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, 2050, Australia.
EClinicalMedicine
|July 16, 2024
概括
预计到2027年,慢性病 (CKD) 和置换疗法 (KRT) 的经济负担将大幅增加. 置换疗法不成比例地推动了这些不断上升的成本,强调了早期CKD诊断和管理的必要性.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學.
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 慢性病 (CKD) 是一个日益严重的全球经济挑战.
- 了解慢性病和替代疗法 (KRT) 的财务影响对于明智的政策决策至关重要.
- 这项"Inside CKD"研究模拟了从2022年到2027年的31个国家的CKD经济负担.
研究的目的:
- 绘制和预测被诊断的CKD和KRT的经济负担.
- 分析CKD中的成本驱动因素,包括并发症和心血管并发症.
- 为医疗保健资源分配和政策制定提供数据.
主要方法:
- 使用国家人口统计数据和脏注册表数据开发了一个微模拟模型.
- 通过文献审查和专家咨询,收集了患者一级的成本数据.
- 预测包括CKD阶段,KRT模式和相关条件的直接成本.
主要成果:
- 诊断出CKD和KRT的总直接成本预计将增加9.3%,从2022年的3720亿美元增加到2027年的4067亿美元.
- 预计到2027年,每年的KRT成本将增加10.0%,达到1866亿美元.
- 到2027年,KRT患者将占诊断的CKD病例的5.3%,但占总成本的45.9%.
结论:
- 预计在2022年至2027年期间,CKD的经济负担将大幅增加.
- 在经济总负担中,KRT占比不成比例.
- 建议早期诊断和主动管理CKD,以减轻未来的医疗保健成本.
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