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在患者层面预测慢性病的临床负担:一个微模拟建模研究
Glenn M Chertow1, Ricardo Correa-Rotter2, Kai-Uwe Eckardt3
1Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford Palo Alto, CA 94305, USA.
EClinicalMedicine
|July 16, 2024
概括
慢性病 (CKD) 在全球范围内正在上升,预测到2027年将有4.366亿例病例. 早期查和政策干预对于管理这种日益增长的负担及其并发症至关重要.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 慢性病 (CKD) 是一个重要的全球健康问题,由2型糖尿病,高血压和人口老龄化加剧.
- "在CKD内部"倡议旨在提高人们对CKD在全球范围内带来的重大负担的认识.
研究的目的:
- 通过同行评审的微显模拟模型,估计2022年至2027年的CKD临床负担.
- 在受影响人群中预测CKD,置换疗法,心血管并发症,并发症和死亡率的患病率.
主要方法:
- 采用微模拟方法,利用来自美洲,欧洲和亚太地区/中东地区的人口统计数据.
- 虚拟人群是为了在五年内预测CKD相关的健康结果而生成的.
主要成果:
- 预计到2027年,CKD的患病率将达到43660万例,比2022年增加5.8%,大约80%仍未被诊断.
- 到2027年,预计CKD患者会出现心力衰竭 (8859/100,000),心肌梗塞 (10,244/100,000) 和中风 (7797/100,000) 的高率.
结论:
- 慢性瘤的临床影响很大,预计将继续增长,强调需要改进管理策略.
- 专注于查,早期诊断和有效治疗的卫生政策干预措施对于减轻慢性瘤及其并发症日益增加的负担至关重要.
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