在帆船和蒸汽时代的跨洋病原体转移
Elizabeth N Blackmore1,2, James O Lloyd-Smith1
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095.
概括
数学建模量化了船载病原体引入的历史风险. 旅行时间,船只大小,蒸汽船和大量人口的旅行增加等因素大大放大了全球疾病的传播.
科学领域:
- 历史流行病学 历史流行病学
- 疾病传播的数学建模.
- 全球健康史 全球健康史
背景情况:
- 1492年之后的跨海旅行促进了前所未有的全球病原体循环.
- 了解历史疾病传播的动态对于公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用数学建模量化船载病原体引入的历史风险.
- 确定影响跨洋航行期间疾病传播的关键因素.
- 为了估计各种历史航程时间和船舶尺寸的引入风险.
主要方法:
- 利用数学建模来评估病原体引入风险.
- 嵌入的变量,如旅程持续时间,船只大小,人口易感性,传播强度,密度依赖性和病原体特征.
- 与历史港口抵达数据 (旧金山,1850-1852年) 和重大航行 (1492-1918年) 相关的研究结果.
主要成果:
- 提供了基于历史航程时间和船只种群的病原体引入风险的数值估计.
- 证明蒸汽旅行显著增加了跨海病原体循环的风险.
- 通过航运频繁,大规模的人口迁移显著增加了疾病传播风险.
结论:
- 历史上的旅行,特别是蒸汽船等进步和增加的航运量,大大增加了全球病原体循环的风险.
- 数学建模为量化历史疾病引入途径提供了有价值的见解.
- 研究结果强调了交通技术和人类流动性对传染病动态的影响.
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